Production and Export Indicators for Aromatic Seed Plants in Egypt.

Aromatic seed plants are considered to be non-traditional, multi-use crops, both in their direct form and in their indirect form, through the extraction and use of active substances in the pharmaceutical industry and food industry. The research aims to shed light on the role of aromatic grains in Egyptian agricultural foreign trade, identify the most important economic indicators for agricultural foreign trade in aromatic grains, and determine the most important factors affecting the exports of some aromatic grains in Egypt using regression models in the double logarithmic form.
Research reached several conclusions during the period 2009-2023, the most important are: (1) Egypt exports about 75,04% of its aromatic grain production, which indicates high export rates for aromatic grains. (2) The average coverage index for total aromatic grains reached about 140,27%, indicating that the value of Egypt's exports of these plants covers the value of its imports. (3) The export growth rate index for total aromatic grains was about 159,57%, which means that the commercial sector for aromatic grains is thriving. (4) The average degree of economic exposure reached about 40,90%, indicating the high impact of foreign trade on local activities and the growing strength of Egypt's economy. (5) The Gini-Hirschman coefficient of geographical concentration for both the quantity and value of Egypt's exports of aromatic grains is about 30,24% 31,84%, respectively, with about 29,60% and 34,62% of the quantity and value of Egypt's exports of aromatic grains concentrated in the following nine countries (Algeria, Libya, Germany, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Germany, Turkey, Tunisia, and China). This does not represent a risk, as it is evidence that Egyptian exports of aromatic grains are distributed across a large number of countries, which reduces the risk of market control. (6) A relative increase of about 10% in both cultivated area and production volume leads to an increase in export volume of about 6,6% and 5,9%, respectively, while a relative increase of about 10% in export price leads to a decrease in export volume of about 2,3%. (7) The most important exporters of total aromatic grains worldwide, which compete with Egypt in global markets, are India, China, Vietnam, Turkey, Spain, the United States, and Germany. The index of apparent comparative advantage for total aromatic grains in these countries is approximately 3859,13%, 72,11%, 543,95%, 611,97%, 100,16%, 12,75%, and 30,78%, respectively, during the study period (2009-2023). This shows that Egypt ranks second after India, its competitor in this advantage, with a rate of approximately 3859,13% during the average study period. It also shows the apparent comparative advantage of Egypt compared to its other competitors and exporters of aromatic grains worldwide, namely China, Vietnam, Turkey, Spain, the United States, and Germany.  (8) Egypt exports about 53,34% of its cumin production, which indicates high export rates for cumin, and 18,65% of its cassia production. (9) The average coverage index for cumin was about 23,03%, indicating that the value of Egypt's exports of these plants does not cover the value of their imports, and 56,60% for cassia. (10) The export growth rate index for cumin reached about 67,33%, which means that the commercial sector for cumin is thriving, 3,17% for cassia.  (11) The average degree of economic exposure reached about 5,15%, According to the interpretation of the openness index, a low value does not indicate economic dependence, but rather points to the possibility of the country's economy being exposed to instability as a result of circumstances surrounding foreign trade, Meanwhile, a low degree of economic exposure indicates the extent to which the country's economy is isolated from global foreign trade, 1,64% for cassia. (12) The Gini-Hirschman coefficient for both the quantity and value of Egypt's cumin exports is approximately 46,50% 44,50% respectively, with about 56,56% and 57,55% of the quantity and value of Egypt's cumin exports concentrated in the following eleven countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Turkey, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Germany, Spain, Canada, and Australia), This does not represent a risk, as it is evidence that Egyptian exports of cumin are distributed across a large number of countries, which reduces the risk of market control, As for cardamom, exports are concentrated in the following six countries (Libya, Algeria, Germany, England, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates). (13) A relative increase of about 10% in both cultivated area and production volume leads to an increase in exports of about 8,8% and 10,7%, in order, while a relative increase of about 10% in the export price leads to a reduction in the quantity of exports by about 14,3%, a relative increase in the cultivated area, production quantity, and export price leads to an increase in the quantity of exports by about 7,7%, 6,3%, 3,3%, respectively.