Analysis of the Sources of Changes in the Growth of Wheat Crop Production in Egypt during the Period 2000-2020

The research deals with studying the economic importance of the most important grain crop in Egypt, which is wheat, by studying some of the most important productive and economic features and indicators of wheat. These features are: area, production, productivity, farm prices, net return, and by-products of those crops.
It was found that the total area cultivated with wheat during the study period in the old lands ranged between a minimum of about 1,932.70 thousand acres in 2001, and a maximum of about 2,775.32 thousand acres in 2020, with an average of about 2,445.82 thousand acres, and an annual growth rate of about 1.4%. The total wheat crop area during the same period in the new lands ranged between a minimum of about 398.63 thousand acres in 2003 and a maximum of about 718.95 thousand acres in 2015 With an average of about 538.68 thousand acres, and an annual growth rate of about 2.3%, while the total area of ​​the Republic of wheat crop during the same period ranged between a minimum of about 2,341.80 thousand acres in 2001, and a maximum of about 3,468.86 thousand acres in 2015, with an average of about 2983.50 thousand acres, and an annual growth rate of about 1.6%.
The productivity of the wheat crop during the study period in Lower Egypt in the old lands ranged between a minimum of about 2.10 tons per acre in 2017, and a maximum of about 2.89 tons per acre in 2014, with an average of  2.77 tons per acre, and an annual decrease rate of about 0.4%. The wheat crop during the study period in Middle Egypt in the old lands ranged between a minimum of about 2.67 tons per acre in 2020, and a maximum of about 2.99 tons per acre in 2018, with an average of about 2.86 tons per acre, and an annual decrease rate of about 0.06%, while the average productivity of the wheat crop during the same period in Upper Egypt in the old lands was about 2.78 tons, and ranged between a minimum of about 2.67 tons per acre in 2020, and a maximum of about 2.91 tons per acre in 2017, with an annual decrease rate of 0.1%.
The results also indicate that the changes in the growth of wheat crop production during the period 2000-2020 in the total old lands can be divided into about 99.12% coming from area changes, and about 0.13% due to productivity changes, while the combined effect of them contributes about 0.75%. Which indicates that the effect of horizontal expansion is greater than the effect of vertical expansion. This reflects the effect of area on increasing the growth of wheat crop production. While in the total new lands, the results indicate that the changes in the growth of wheat crop production during the period (2000-2020) can be divided into about 88.78%, originating from changes in area, with a growth rate of about 1.72%, and about 13.08% due to changes in productivity, with a growth rate of about 0.90%. While their combined effect contributes about 1.86%. This indicates that the effect of horizontal expansion is greater than the effect of vertical expansion, which reflects the effect of area in increasing the growth of wheat crop production.
The data also show that the specific weight of the total old land for the growth in the value of wheat crop production during the study period (2000-2020) About 20.12% comes from changes in area, and about  2.48% is due to the effect of productivity, while the specific weight of the farm price effect contributes about 82.36%. It was also shown that the specific weight of the total new land for the growth in the value of wheat crop production during the period (2000-2020) amounted to about 33.50% is due to changes in area, and about 2.96% is due to changes in productivity, while the specific gravity of the agricultural price contributes about 63.54%. The data show that the specific weight of the total land of the Republic for the growth in the value of wheat crop production during the study period is about 270.32%, coming from the area effect, and about 7.58% is due to the productivity effect, while the specific weight of the farm price effect contributes about 162.74%.