The Impact of Exchange Rate Liberalization on the Production and Export Capacity of Orange and Mango Crops in Egypt

The research aimed to study the production, economic and foreign trade indicators of orange and mango crops during the period (2008-2022) as well as measuring the impact of liberalizing the exchange rate on the supply response functions for each of the study crops during the same period. The research reached the following results:
- As for the orange crop, the cultivated area amounted to 296 thousand acres, representing about 19.9% ​​of the average area of ​​Egyptian fruits during the period (2018-2022), and the average total production was 2.89 million tons per acre during the study period (2008-2022), and the average productivity per acre was about 10.3 tons per acre, and the amount available for consumption was 1.64 million tons, and the average costs per acre ranged from 25.9 thousand pounds/ tons, and the average net return per acre was 5.4 thousand pounds, and the average farm price was 1.8 thousand pounds and the average consumer price was 3.92 thousand pounds/ tons, and the average quantity and value of exports amounted to 811 thousand tons, 550 million dollars respectively and the average export price is 699 dollars per ton during the study period.
- As for the mango crop, its area comes in second place with 18.8% of the average Egyptian fruit area with an average of about 279 thousand acres during the study period, and the average total production is 844 thousand tons, and the average productivity per acre is about 3.93 tons per acre, and the amount available for consumption is 1.13 million tons, and the average cost per acre ranged from 26.70 thousand pounds/ acres, and the average net return per acre is 5.39 thousand pounds, and the average farm price is 6.09 thousand pounds, and the average consumer price is 14.23 thousand pounds/ tons, and the average quantity and value of exports are 13.75 thousand tons, 21.59 million dollars respectively, and the average export price is 1594 dollars per ton.
- As shown by measuring the effect of the exchange rate and the export price in the previous year on the supply response function, the exchange rate explains 72% of the changes that occurred in the area planted with oranges, and that the liberalization of the exchange rate had a positive effect on the area planted with oranges as an export crop in the first place, as the area planted in the following year increases by about 0.11% for every 1% change in the exchange rate, and that the export price explains 65% of the changes that occurred in the area planted with oranges and also has a positive effect on the area planted with oranges, as the area planted in the following year increases by about 10.14%.
 - While the exchange rate and mango export price in the previous year explain about 77%, 76% of the changes in the area planted with mango, the liberalization of the exchange rate and export price had a positive impact on the area planted with them, as by increasing the exchange rate and export price by 1%, the area planted with mango in the following year increases by about 0.31%, 0.27% respectively.
- The research recommends the necessity of continuing to encourage exports and increase their competitiveness, encouraging local production, working to attract investments, and trying to increase the area planted with the crops under study, thus providing foreign currencies (dollars), targeting inflation, maintaining price stability, and evaluating the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against a basket of foreign currencies and not one currency (dollars), and the necessity of relying on economic derivatives represented by short- and long-term flexibility when drawing up pricing policies.