Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Department of Agricultural Economics - Faculty of Agriculture - Ain Shams University
2
Professor Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University
3
Agri. Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
4
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt.
10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2024.381765
Abstract
The maize crop is one of the most important strategic grain crops in Egypt due to its economic and nutritional significance, with multiple uses in the country for both non-human and human consumption. Despite the increased area cultivated with maize in Egypt and the rising local production, domestic output does not meet consumption needs. According to statistics from the average period of 2017-2021, local production is approximately 7.32 million tons, while domestic consumption is estimated at around 17.079 million tons, distributed among several uses, including 11.888 million tons for non-human consumption and 2.329 million tons for human consumption. This research aims to measure the extent to which Egyptian demand for maize imports and local consumption are influenced by positively impactful variables, which will assist agricultural policymakers in making decisions that contribute to meeting the required import quantities.
During the period from 2017 to 2021, the quantity of maize consumed in Egypt reached its lowest in 2007 at approximately 11.392 million tons and its highest in 2019 at around 18.322 million tons, with an average of about 14.393 million tons during this period. The quantity of Egyptian maize imports reached its lowest in 2008 at approximately 3.022 million tons, while it peaked in 2013 at about 13.034 million tons, with an average of around 7.396 million tons. The value of Egyptian maize imports was at its lowest in 2009 at approximately 836.599 million dollars and peaked in 2022 at around 2500.913 million dollars, with an average of about 1758.948 million dollars during the period. From 2018 to 2022, maize imports were primarily concentrated from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with the average quantity of Egyptian maize imports from these countries during the study period being approximately 7.397 million tons, accounting for 86.22% of the average quantity of Egyptian maize imports during this period.
To identify the factors influencing the quantity of Egyptian maize imports, it was found that the most impactful variables include the Egyptian import price of maize in dollars per ton, the import price of maize from Brazil in dollars per ton, and the average per capita share of gross domestic product at current U.S. dollar prices. Additionally, the gap in maize supply and the quantity of maize for animal feed were significant factors. Meanwhile, the variables affecting Egyptian consumption of maize included the gap in maize supply in million tons, the quantity of maize consumed in the previous year in million tons, and the average per capita share of gross domestic product at current U.S. dollar prices. The economic and statistical significance of these variables was confirmed, as was the statistical significance of the mathematical model used.
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