An analytical study of the agricultural policy analysis matrix for the cotton crop in Egypt

Cotton is one of the leading cash crops that are indispensable in the field of agriculture, and it is one of the most important strategic crops where many local industries are established on it such as the textile industry and oil production, and lint is used in the paper and plastic industry and cotton is now referred to as lint cotton, which has been separated from the seeds. Cellulose extracted from cotton is also used in the manufacture of papers, and is also used in many secondary industries such as candles, soap industry, as well as its waste is used in the manufacture of concentrated feed (gain), and the use of cotton firewood in the biofuel industry. Despite this, the cultivated area of the cotton crop has declined in recent years due to the presence of many challenges and obstacles to the expansion of its production, as a result of the disparity in the policies and mechanisms developed and followed by the state during the recent period, such as reducing subsidies on agricultural production requirements, which led to a rise in production costs, which led to the decline of farmers from cotton cultivation.
The most important results of the research were:
(1) The decrease in the cultivated area of cotton during the period (2005-2022) at a statistically significant annual rate of about 5.3%, which is equivalent to about 18 thousand feddans annually, this led to a decline in cotton production at a statistically significant annual decrease rate of about 4.3%, which is equivalent to about 16 thousand tons per year. It was also shown that the price of a quintal of cotton increased at a statistically significant annual rate of about 12.6%, which is equivalent to about 262 pounds/quintals per year. The increase in acre costs at an annual rate of statistically significant increase amounted to about 13.1%, which is equivalent to about 2530 pounds annually. (2) It was found that the average cotton area represents about 2.02% of the crop area during the study period, which indicates a decrease in the relative importance of the cotton crop area in the crop area due to the decrease in the cultivated area of cotton during the study period. It was also found that the average relative importance of Egypt cotton production to world production was about 1.33% during the study period, which indicates a decline in the relative importance of Egypt cotton production to world production due to the decline in cotton production during the study period. (3) It was also found that there is a relative instability in both the area and production, and there is relative stability in the farm price, and therefore the instability of the area leads to instability in cotton production during the study period. (4) It was found that there is a deficit in the quantitative trade balance of cotton estimated at about 33 thousand tons during the average period (2005-2022), due to the decrease in the amount of exports and the increase in the amount of Egyptian imports as a result of the decrease in the area planted with cotton, and also the existence of a deficit in the monetary trade balance of cotton estimated at about 287 million pounds, due to the decrease in the value of exports and the increase in the value of imports. (5) The results of the matrix for the analysis of agricultural price policies for the cotton crop followed during the averages of (2005-2013) and (2014-2022) also showed that they were not to the detriment of cotton producers, as it is found that these policies have negative effects on revenues and farm profitability, which results in price distortions and losses for producers.