Statistical Measurement of the Impact of Climate and Environmental Variables on Egyptian Agricultural Output Indicators

Climate change is seen as one of the most serious dangers to Egypt's Vision 2030 sustainable development goals, and the agricultural sector plays a critical role in reaching those goals. The research challenge is that Egypt's CO₂ emissions have increased from around 91.1 million tons in 1990 to approximately 259.3 million tons in 2021, representing a 184.6% increase over 1990. This indicates a rise in the harmful value of CO₂ gas emissions at rates that exceed the value of agricultural domestic product, which was about 20.1 billion pounds in 1990, compared to about 523.8 billion pounds in 2021. The research also seeks to investigate the influence of climate change on the value of agricultural domestic products as well as the goals of sustainable economic development. In order to describe the economic factors under consideration, the study employed both descriptive and quantitative analysis approaches. Regarding investigating the environmental difficulties represented by encroachment on agricultural lands, the extent of pollution with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the quantity of fertilizer usage, and the amount of pesticide consumption. The results of the study indicated that their general average amounted to about 4.3 thousand acres, about 7.9 million tons, about 6.6 million tons, about 1.3 million tons, and about 9.4 thousand tons, and that both the phenomenon of encroachment on agricultural lands and the amount of consumption of phosphate fertilizers are increasing annually by a statistically significant amount of about 283.2 acres, or about 0.01 million tons. The amount of nitrogen fertilizer consumption and total fertilizer consumption is decreasing at a statistically significant rate of about 0.01 million tons and about 0.1 million tons, respectively, with an annual growth rate of about 6.6%, 1.2%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 3.5% during the period (1990–2021). The statistical significance of several environmental and climatic variables affecting the value of agricultural GDP in Egypt, measured using the stepwise multiple regression model in its double logarithmic form, is at the 1% level. The findings show that raising CO₂ emissions by roughly 1% increases the value of agricultural GDP by about 2.1%. This does not follow the logic of economic theory. Increasing the reclaimed area by about 1% increases the value of the agricultural domestic product by about 0.1%; increasing the cropped area by about 1% increases the value of the agricultural domestic product by about 3.0%; and increasing the volume of encroachment on agricultural lands by about 1% decreases the value of agricultural GDP by about 0.1%. This follows the logic of economic theory. The total elasticity of the stepwise regression model for the value of GDP was around 5.1. One of the most important recommendations made by the study is the use of smart agriculture approaches to combat climate change in Egypt, such as producing new strains that can withstand high temperatures, salt, and drought, as well as kinds that use little water.