Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Land and Water Research Department - Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center
2
Agricultural economics research institute land and water department
3
Agricultural Statistics Research Department - Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center
Abstract
The Egyptian government's efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in basic crops. By increasing agricultural production through horizontal expansion and encouraging investment in the field of land reclamation and establishing new agricultural communities to provide job opportunities for young people in these communities, which helps to reduce the unemployment rate, so arable land resources are the most important and largest determinants of horizontal agricultural expansion in addition to water resources.
The most important search results were as follows:
The results of estimating the pressure index on cultivated land for grain crops, oil crops, legumes, and sugary crops indicated that it is less than 1 during (2000-2020) in four different regions in Egypt, and this means that the actual per capita share of cultivated land is greater than the minimum per capita share of land. Planted and did not reach the value of the danger limit (alarm). This indicates that the four different regions in Egypt are still capable of achieving self-sufficiency, and that it is possible to expand into new lands to increase the self-sufficiency ratios of strategic crop groups.
And when making future projections for both the area of agricultural land and the area of arable land, based on the B&J methodology, which gave logical results for the current reality, and the estimated model for each of them was as follows:
The ARIMA model (1,1,2) is the appropriate model for predicting the area of agricultural lands in Egypt. Agricultural lands increased during the forecast period from about 9927 thousand feddans in 2021 to about 10376 thousand feddans in 2025. The minimum ranged from 9453 thousand feddans in 2021 to about 9687 thousand feddans in 2025, while the maximum ranged between 10401 thousand feddans in 2021. To About 11,066 thousand acres in 2025.
The ARIMA model (2,1,3) is the appropriate model for predicting the arable land area in Egypt. And that arable land will increase during the forecast period from about 7,264 thousand feddans in 2021 to about 7,497 thousand feddans in 2025. The minimum ranged between 6,439 thousand feddans in 2025 to about 6,618 thousand feddans in 2021. While it ranged the maximum range between 7,909 thousand acres in 2025, in 2021 to about 8,554 thousand acres in 2025.
Main Subjects
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