Egypt has been suffering from an absolute shortage of wheat production and supplies for domestic consumption, which has affected the overall food security situation in the country. As a result, the government relies heavily on wheat imports to compensate for the shortage of domestic supplies. This study was designed to study the economic indicators of wheat in Egypt and predict the economic variables to estimate the apparent gap and the value of imports of wheat to provide some recommendations can be help the decision-makers and agricultural policy-makers related to wheat in Egypt. To achieve the objectives of the study we applied a moving time-series models (ARIMA), and the results of forecasting economic variables of wheat in Egypt, which were statistically confirmed according to several related tests, showed that the total production of wheat in 2025 is expected to reach 8.2 million tons, while the total consumption is expected to reach 21.1 million tons, and therefore the apparent gap for wheat in Egypt will reach 12.9 million tons.
Eliw, M., & Ramadan, E. (2021). Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt. Alexandria Science Exchange Journal, 42(3), 1783-1799. doi: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883
MLA
Moataz Eliw; Eman Ramadan. "Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt", Alexandria Science Exchange Journal, 42, 3, 2021, 1783-1799. doi: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883
HARVARD
Eliw, M., Ramadan, E. (2021). 'Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt', Alexandria Science Exchange Journal, 42(3), pp. 1783-1799. doi: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883
VANCOUVER
Eliw, M., Ramadan, E. Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt. Alexandria Science Exchange Journal, 2021; 42(3): 1783-1799. doi: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883
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