Estimating The Demand on Egyptian Citrus Exports by Using An Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS)

This study aims to estimate the demand for Egyptian citrus exports on the main world markets. Also to analyze the price relations and the expenditure on citrus on this markets. A linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model has been utilized to estimate the export demand. This model replaces the share expenditure of a market by the quantity demanded in the classical models.
The study also investigated the competitive and complementary relations between different export markets. The data used here are secondary data published by the united nations in the international trade statistical Yearbook, as well as data obtained from the world web net (Internet).
The results showed that Saudi market has recorded the highest share of the total Egyptian citrus exports during the 1994-2007 period of time. The average market shares for Saudi Arabia, Russland , England
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
and Rest of the world were 23.3%, 20.2%, 9.6%, 46.9% respectively.
The derived expenditure elasticities showed a direct relation between the total expenditure in citrus and the market shares for Saudi Arabia , England, and the Rest of World Markets and an inverse relation for Russland. The expenditure elasticities for Saudi Arabia, England, and the rest of world markets amounted to 3.0, 1.8, 0.55 respectively while for Russland it was negative and has amounted to -0.6. According  to the derived cross price elasticities. The study could arrange the competitiveness relations between different markets into strong or week substitutes as follow: Russland  Market with both Rest of The World Market (2.65) and England Market (1.3), Finally England Market with Rest of the World Market (0.65)  .
The study has finally showed that a price reduction policy might be useful for increasing exports in the markets showing an elastic demand.