Economic Analysis of Price Fluctuations of the Most Important Food Commodities in Egypt

The study aims to measure the volatility of the prices of basic food commodities in Egypt and to identify the factors that affect them. The study aims at determining the main macroeconomic variables affecting the fluctuations in the prices of food commodities, (N = 84). The study was conducted on 8 food commodities: wheat, rice, potatoes, oranges, red meat, poultry meat, sugar, edible oil, It was estimated Simple and multiple regression equations with the relevant statistical tests, the most important of which are: R2, F, and t. The growth rates for all the variables studied were estimated using the Exponential Function model. The research used a non-parameterized method based on the use of moving averages, the X-12 ARIMA method. The relationship between the exchange rate and commodity prices was also analyzed between inflation and commodity prices Studied using the simple regression model.
The most important results of the study are:
• The study of the evolution of both the wholesale price and the retail price of the commodities studied in current values ​​indicates that they tended to increase at a statistically significant annual growth rate. The volatility coefficient for wholesale and retail prices in real terms was 28.86%, 22.50% for wheat and 24.26% For both wholesale and retail price of rice. And about 3712%, 38.78% for both wholesale and retail price of potatoes, about 24.28%, 28.30% for wholesale and retail price of orange, about 17.30%, 18.52% for both wholesale and retail price of red meat. And about 22.83%, 26.84% for both wholesale and retail price of poultry meat. And about 23.38%, 22.47% for both wholesale and retail price of sugar. And about 85.12%, 54.56% for both wholesale and retail price of edible oil.
• A correlation was found between the exchange rate and the inflation rate in the real prices of food commodities studied during the study period.
• The results of the estimation of the relationship between the wholesale and retail price levels of the commodities in question indicated that the correlation coefficients and the identification coefficients were close to the correct one for most of the commodities studied. This means that there is a strong correlation between the price levels on the one hand and that the changes in each price level explain the changes in the level The other price, ie, is responsible for the occurrence of these changes, and the significance of these functions at the level of 0.01%.
• Estimated seasonal variations of wholesale and retail prices using the ARIMA X-12 method. In general, it is possible to say that there is some correlation between the seasonality of wholesale prices and the retail prices of the commodities studied.